A few days ago I posted an article about The Accelerating Evolution of AI and a Shrinking Timeline to Radical Change. A few days after that, Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, published a blog post entitled The Information Age. In his post, Altman says: “It is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days (!); it may take longer, but I’m confident we’ll get there.” This is accumulating acknowledgment of the rapid exponential growth of AI.
Achieving Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) in that few thousand days timeframe means that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) would arrive well before ASI on the AI exponential growth curve, as shown in the chart below. Already, the current AI growth stage, Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI), is demonstrating characteristics of AGI, evidence that AGI may arrive in just several hundred days. (See my recent article for details on the capabilities of the stages of AI growth.)
We’re in the Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI) phase very close to the AGI phase.
Many companies such as OpenAI, Meta, Google, Microsoft, X.ai, IBM, Anthropic, Perplexity, and Mistral are making rapid advances in AI. Applications, like those cited in Sam Altman’s post, are likely coming more quickly than many expect.