Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)

The definition of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) contains elements such as:

• the ability of machines to learn and understand at a human level

• also referred to as strong AI

• achieving some form of consciousness

A Wide Range of Opinions on When AGI Can be Achieved

There are a wide range of predictions on when AGI will be achieved, from a single decade to many decades or longer. Reasons for this include:

• exponential growth in many areas of Machine Learning and AI may make an earlier date achievable

• promising areas might accelerate progress, including:

  • Artificial Neural Networks

  • Attention

  • Automated Machine Learning

  • Causal Embedding

  • Deep Learning

  • Deep Reasoning

  • Generative Adversarial Networks

  • Reinforcement Learning

  • Transformer Neural Networks

  • Unsupervised Learning

• an exact definition of AGI ‘human level’ and ‘consciousness’ is difficult to pin down; for example, should it include some harder to achieve aspects such as:

  • feelings and emotions

  • human fallibility

  • self awareness

One Survey of Opinions

One survey of AGI predictions is from Nick Bostrom and can be found here. Summary results for responses with a 50% confidence level include:

• the median at the year 2040

• the average at the year 2081

• the discrepancy between the median and average is due to some predictions extending out many decades to never

On the Road to AGI

As we progress along the road to AGI, there will be many advances in Machine Learning and AGI, for example:

• applications are expanding at a rapid rate

• accuracies are improving substantially

As we get closer to AGI, an exact date and definition may be less important than the wealth generated and benefits to society.